Gavroche
Well-Known Member
Guadeloupe, Saint-Barthélemy et autres ... and Cuba ?...
HURRICANE '' IRMA ''. has me worried,
- Thread starter Chicken
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There is talk of creating a new category for this hurricane..."Cat 6". If she stays on course, she'll scour the Keys. Have you ever seen an F4 - F5 tornado scour the asphalt right of the road? Imagine that across the Keys. This one could be bigger than Andrew.
I was in the middle of Hurricane Opel a few years back. Cat 3. I can't imagine anything more intense.
Irma is currently a CAT 5 storm, with 180 mph maximum sustained winds, with higher gusts.
Bob
EDIT: The difference between a minimum CAT 4 hurricane and minimum CAT 5 hurricane is 24 mph. So, by that logic, a theoretical "CAT 6" would begin at a minimum of 184 mph. [The highest sustained hurricane wind EVER was 190 mph, during hurricane Allen in 1980.]
Bob
EDIT: The difference between a minimum CAT 4 hurricane and minimum CAT 5 hurricane is 24 mph. So, by that logic, a theoretical "CAT 6" would begin at a minimum of 184 mph. [The highest sustained hurricane wind EVER was 190 mph, during hurricane Allen in 1980.]
well. we made the desicision to '' BUG-OUT''...ill be taking a couple tents,, canned food,, water,,,, batteries,,,, depending on what it's doing saturday will decide if and when i leave... and then depending on its direction will determine where i go.. and come back.. proablly the following thursday... gonna take the fishing equipment.. i may go to ALABAMA ... for a couple days... hang at a state park. and do some fishing.
and proablly come back to my place really hit hard... i dont think anyone is safe. if it comes right up the middle of the state,!!!!! the interstate I-75 north bound lane is gridlocked right now,,,, it's about 1/4 mile from the house,,, i hear tires blow out constantlly,
but when i leave.. i'll be using the backroads. till i clear the bottleneck of escappees from florida,
the last time i was in alabama was 1987.... for basic training....it'll be nice to visit without a drill seargant yelling at me,,
i'll have to throw out a bag of dog-food... and let the dogs ride it out... too many to take with me...
and proablly come back to my place really hit hard... i dont think anyone is safe. if it comes right up the middle of the state,!!!!! the interstate I-75 north bound lane is gridlocked right now,,,, it's about 1/4 mile from the house,,, i hear tires blow out constantlly,
but when i leave.. i'll be using the backroads. till i clear the bottleneck of escappees from florida,
the last time i was in alabama was 1987.... for basic training....it'll be nice to visit without a drill seargant yelling at me,,
i'll have to throw out a bag of dog-food... and let the dogs ride it out... too many to take with me...
The models are getting wobbly right now. A tiny difference in the exact timing of when Irma turns north will determine if it misses Florida entirely, and heads up to SC, NC or VA, or if it rakes through all of the Florida peninsula from bottom to top.
Bob
Bob
OldDinosaurWesH
Well-Known Member
The South East and Caribbean are getting pounded by rain and Hurricanes. Here in the far North West we are burning up with major forest fires all up and down the Cascade range. From Canada in the north to Mt. Shasta (northern California) in the south. Interstate 84 going upstream along the Columbia river gorge from Portland Or. is closed due to smoke and cinders. The highway on the north (Washington) side of the Columbia river is also closed. The fires jumped across the Columbia river sometime yesterday and started new fires in Washington state. This is a little amazing as the Lower Columbia river is over one mile wide at that point. Those must be some pretty long-lived cinders.
The air quality here locally (some 200 miles downwind) has gone from "Unhealthy" to "Very Unhealthy". I went outside at 6:00 p.m. to see about setting up my tripod to get photos of the setting sun, only to discover that the sun was totally obscured by the smoke. Something else that I noticed today was the lower than expected temperature. 92 was predicted, and it only got into the mid 80's. Too much smoke and particulates in the atmosphere for the sun to penetrate. Another thing I noticed immediately this evening were the Crickets chirping. I looked at my clock to confirm it, 6:08 p.m. local. The crickets were soon joined by songbirds. Both of these creatures don't normally start singing until after the sun has gone down. Official sunset is at 7:39 p.m. Being down in a deep river valley, our sunset happens around 7:00 p.m. locally. The prematurely darkening skies were fooling mother nature today. No, I didn't notice any clasping hands on my tobacco. My tobacco is so mature at this point that I don't think it could clasp if it wanted to.
I have some type of a Sphinx Moth that likes to appear and sniff around my ornamental tobaccos after sunset. This critter was not fooled by the declining light however. Maybe photoperiodism isn't limited to just plants.
The local schools are talking about closing temporarily due to the poor air quality, and the elderly, very young, and breathing impaired are being advised to stay indoors and avoid heavy exertion.
All in all a mess. But, as the French say "such is life."
Wes H.
Side Bar comment: One of the arguments against the Global Warming theory, is that all the particulates and soot put out by burning fossil fuels, actually causes cooling, due to reduced amounts of sunshine actually making it to the surface of the earth. This is of course the greatest of heresies if you are an advocate of man made global warming theories. But, just like a good post-doctorate research project, you can't prove either one. But you can almost certainly squeeze some governmental agency for some research money.
The air quality here locally (some 200 miles downwind) has gone from "Unhealthy" to "Very Unhealthy". I went outside at 6:00 p.m. to see about setting up my tripod to get photos of the setting sun, only to discover that the sun was totally obscured by the smoke. Something else that I noticed today was the lower than expected temperature. 92 was predicted, and it only got into the mid 80's. Too much smoke and particulates in the atmosphere for the sun to penetrate. Another thing I noticed immediately this evening were the Crickets chirping. I looked at my clock to confirm it, 6:08 p.m. local. The crickets were soon joined by songbirds. Both of these creatures don't normally start singing until after the sun has gone down. Official sunset is at 7:39 p.m. Being down in a deep river valley, our sunset happens around 7:00 p.m. locally. The prematurely darkening skies were fooling mother nature today. No, I didn't notice any clasping hands on my tobacco. My tobacco is so mature at this point that I don't think it could clasp if it wanted to.
I have some type of a Sphinx Moth that likes to appear and sniff around my ornamental tobaccos after sunset. This critter was not fooled by the declining light however. Maybe photoperiodism isn't limited to just plants.
The local schools are talking about closing temporarily due to the poor air quality, and the elderly, very young, and breathing impaired are being advised to stay indoors and avoid heavy exertion.
All in all a mess. But, as the French say "such is life."
Wes H.
Side Bar comment: One of the arguments against the Global Warming theory, is that all the particulates and soot put out by burning fossil fuels, actually causes cooling, due to reduced amounts of sunshine actually making it to the surface of the earth. This is of course the greatest of heresies if you are an advocate of man made global warming theories. But, just like a good post-doctorate research project, you can't prove either one. But you can almost certainly squeeze some governmental agency for some research money.
Smokin Harley
Well-Known Member
Im actually worried about the Dominican Republic and Cuba...tobacco is those peoples livelihood and its about to be wiped out. if it hasn't happened already by now .
While tobacco can grow at any time of year in Cuba and the Dominican Republic, it is primarily a winter crop. The DR, which had a late start this season, wrapped up their tobacco harvest in mid-May.
Bob
Bob
This is a Wednesday evening 13 minute video discussion of the current hurricane situation from www.tropicaltidbits.com
Gavroche
Well-Known Member
St Martin and St Barth KO... chaos !
well as it stands right now..... we are going to ride it out... even though the thing is LITERALLY GOING RIGHT OVER MY HOUSE<-------------my parents dont want to leave. so i'll stay with them and try to keep them safe... we have a shelter about 2-3 miles away. so if it gets bad we can go there,
ME PERSONALLY I WANT TO LEAVE ...to stay here is just asking for trouble, but at least im '' ready '' i got 30 gallons of drinking water.... and about 40 gallons of water for flushing the toilet.. and plenty of can goods, ' and a new manually can opener,''.. me and my son have been storing anything that could be blown away.
unlike a lot of people i had my wife start gathering can goods at the beginning of the week. before the shelves got stripped, it's gonna be bad everyone will be effected.. thier is no '' safe spot '' for the whole state.... were in it for the long run.
p.s. i also had her stock up on my beer. i got 5 cases. [ very inportant that you stock up on beer ]
ME PERSONALLY I WANT TO LEAVE ...to stay here is just asking for trouble, but at least im '' ready '' i got 30 gallons of drinking water.... and about 40 gallons of water for flushing the toilet.. and plenty of can goods, ' and a new manually can opener,''.. me and my son have been storing anything that could be blown away.
unlike a lot of people i had my wife start gathering can goods at the beginning of the week. before the shelves got stripped, it's gonna be bad everyone will be effected.. thier is no '' safe spot '' for the whole state.... were in it for the long run.
p.s. i also had her stock up on my beer. i got 5 cases. [ very inportant that you stock up on beer ]
Chicken, just don't be drunk when the shit hits the fan.
"Andrew was a monster; Irma could blow it out of the water" https://phys.org/news/2017-09-andrew-monster-irma.html
The latest forecasts:
Euro model spaghetti. Note that the wind speed colors are in knots. 80 knots is 92 mph.
Bob
"Andrew was a monster; Irma could blow it out of the water" https://phys.org/news/2017-09-andrew-monster-irma.html
The latest forecasts:
Euro model spaghetti. Note that the wind speed colors are in knots. 80 knots is 92 mph.
Bob
From the National Storm Surge Hazard Map website provided by NOAA
Category 5 Storm Surge Projections
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad
High tide of about 2 to 3 feet is expected roughly noon each day this weekend. This amount would be added to the projected storm surge. Irma is presently a CAT 4 storm, but is over very warm water, and is expected by NOAA to reach CAT 5 again by landfall in south Florida. This does not take into account wave heights, which will likely be at least 10 to 20 feet.
The areas shown in red will essentially become part of an angry ocean at peak flooding.
Bob
Category 5 Storm Surge Projections
- BLUE: less than 3 feet above ground
- YELLOW: greater than 3 feet above ground
- ORANGE: greater than 6 feet above ground
- RED: greater than 9 feet above ground
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad
High tide of about 2 to 3 feet is expected roughly noon each day this weekend. This amount would be added to the projected storm surge. Irma is presently a CAT 4 storm, but is over very warm water, and is expected by NOAA to reach CAT 5 again by landfall in south Florida. This does not take into account wave heights, which will likely be at least 10 to 20 feet.
The areas shown in red will essentially become part of an angry ocean at peak flooding.
Bob
BarG
Founding Member
That's some good graphics Bob. The Info I am seeing on the news now says the central cone for the eye of the storm is to the gulf side of Florida.Even worse than earlier predictions for Floridians and Georgians.
BarG
Founding Member
If your in her path Chicken, I hope for you and yours safe journey no matter how you get there.
As of 8:00 am EDT, the path of Irma has shifted west a bit. So the core of the hurricane will very likely strike southwest Florida. But the east coast of Florida will still see the storm. In the image below, the southern coast of Florida and the Florida Keys are outlined in red (hurricane warning). The small brown circle around the hurricane is the central core of the hurricane itself, but the larger, yellow circle indicates the initial wind field. This is huge. Miami, on the east coast (and not yet in the marked wind field) has already experienced 60 mph winds this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Irma is currently a CAT 4 storm, and is interacting with the northern coast of Cuba. It is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Florida Keys tonight.
Bob
EDIT: For a perspective on the size of this storm, relative to the size of the Florida peninsula, here is an image from https://earth.nullschool.net captured at 10:35 this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Irma is currently a CAT 4 storm, and is interacting with the northern coast of Cuba. It is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Florida Keys tonight.
Bob
EDIT: For a perspective on the size of this storm, relative to the size of the Florida peninsula, here is an image from https://earth.nullschool.net captured at 10:35 this morning.
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Meanwhile, In Mexico
While we have been following Hurricane Irma, which has already killed 30 people in the Caribbean, Mexico has experienced both a hurricane (Katia) on the east coast, and the most powerful earthquake in a century on its west coast. The earthquake has killed over 80 people, and the hurricane is expected to trigger flash floods and mudslides over the next day or two.
The earthquake in Mexico was powerful enough to cause damage as much as 500 miles away from the epicenter, and even caused a tidal surge of about 10 inches in New Zealand, 15 hours later.
The Mexican state of Veracruz, directly impacted by the hurricane, is home to the San Andrés Valley, which produces fine cigar tobaccos.
Bob
While we have been following Hurricane Irma, which has already killed 30 people in the Caribbean, Mexico has experienced both a hurricane (Katia) on the east coast, and the most powerful earthquake in a century on its west coast. The earthquake has killed over 80 people, and the hurricane is expected to trigger flash floods and mudslides over the next day or two.
The earthquake in Mexico was powerful enough to cause damage as much as 500 miles away from the epicenter, and even caused a tidal surge of about 10 inches in New Zealand, 15 hours later.
The Mexican state of Veracruz, directly impacted by the hurricane, is home to the San Andrés Valley, which produces fine cigar tobaccos.
Bob
well i guess they will have to re-do the '' welcome sign '' at the state line,,,,it will read...
> WELCOME TO FLORIDA... WE ARE CURRENTLLY UNDER A STATE WIDE RECONSTRUCTION''...,<
im definatlly going to ride it out....i figure from sunday at 3 p.m. till monday at 3 p.m. i'll be on high alert. the prediction for my area is 70 - 120 m.p.h. gusts for 12 hours. personally guys i dont forsee my mobile home making it thru this, shes old, proablly built in the late 70's, ive only got one pine tree im concerned with... and it's a big one,
but im insured... so at least if it blows apart... i hope i got enough time to make it out, ive rebuilt every room and wall in this trailer,,, it'll be a shame to see it in rambles, but it can be replaced. my families lives cant,
wish us luck... 24 hours from now.. all hell will be letting loose in my area,
> WELCOME TO FLORIDA... WE ARE CURRENTLLY UNDER A STATE WIDE RECONSTRUCTION''...,<
im definatlly going to ride it out....i figure from sunday at 3 p.m. till monday at 3 p.m. i'll be on high alert. the prediction for my area is 70 - 120 m.p.h. gusts for 12 hours. personally guys i dont forsee my mobile home making it thru this, shes old, proablly built in the late 70's, ive only got one pine tree im concerned with... and it's a big one,
but im insured... so at least if it blows apart... i hope i got enough time to make it out, ive rebuilt every room and wall in this trailer,,, it'll be a shame to see it in rambles, but it can be replaced. my families lives cant,
wish us luck... 24 hours from now.. all hell will be letting loose in my area,
Gavroche
Well-Known Member
Poulet, je prie pour Vous.
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